After nearly 1 month of very dry February, HEAVY to VERY HEAVY #RAIN/SNOW in the mountains is expected to return to northern KPK & #Punjab, Azad #Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan from today till Wednesday.
SUMMARY: There is a risk of at least two rounds of WIND/ #THUNDERSTORMS between 22 Feb afternoon till 24 Feb evening in #Islamabad, upper #Panjab‘s #Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Mianwali, Sialkot, Gujrat, Hafizabad, Mandi Bahauddin, #Sargodha, #Gujranwala, #Lahore, #Faisalabad, Sahiwal annd adjoining districts. In KPK’s Hazara (#Abbtoabad), Malakand, Swat, Peshawar Valley, Kohat, Laki Marwat areas & in Azad #Kashmir incl. Kotli, Bhimber, Poonch, Muzaffarabad, #Mirpur and adjoining districts.
Check out Map 1 for ECM expected totals till Friday.
Check out Map 2 for ICON expected totals till Friday
Both models are showing a strong similarity in timing and intensity of rainfall.
THREATS: Strong #WINDS – HEAVY RAIN – LIGHTNING – small hail. The highest chance of strong winds and hail is in NE Punjab incl. Sialkot, Gujranwala, Lahore, Gujrat and adjoining districts. Strong wind gusts of 65-80 km/h are possible between tonight (22 Feb) and 23 Feb evening time during strong thunderstorms. Daytime SE breeze of 40-55 km/h also expected ahead of the rain.
#Snowline expected around 7,500-8,500 feet in Kashmir and KPK’s southern areas. and around 7,000 feet in northern parts of KPK, Kashmir, and GB.
In the #Potohar Plateau area, heavy rain along with thunderstorms will be restricted to Rawalpindi, Jhelum and Islamabad regions with totals of 40-60 mm POSSIBLE. Isolated WEEKLY totals expected to exceed 75 mm. Gusty max winds of 55-70 km/h are possible along with the thunderstorms. In Chakwal & Attock, decent rainfall of 15-25 mm is still expected in many locations, however, very heavy rainfall is not expected.
#Moisture incursion began overnight as indicated by our #PWS program and satellite tracked #CLOUDS.